Australia is showing the potential of reaching 50 percent renewable energy target by 2030, even without amendment to federal policy and amidst the Coalition government scare campaign. This is possible due to the rising uptake of rooftop solar and the huge pipeline of large-scale projects provided to the market by state-based targets.
An article on Renew Economy’s website stated that the assessment in the new modelling by Reputex underlines one of the claims by the Coalition government that Labor’s 50 percent renewable energy target by 2030 would damage the economy and would cause a rise in costs.
However, by having a coherent and consistent policy, the said renewables target would be easily fulfilled and even exceed.
According to Reputex, the target will be possibly reached without change to federal energy policy. It will also be supported by approximately 19 gigawatts of new renewable capacity under the various state renewable energy strategies and the big surge rooftop solar installations.
The article also mentioned, “The good news is the current pipeline of rooftop solar and large-scale renewables – another 6 gigawatts to be built to meet and beat the existing renewable energy target of 33,000GWh – will help lower average wholesale electricity prices to around $70/MWh by 2021.”
Reputex added that the existing state policy, which is driven by the 50 percent renewable energy targets in Victoria and Queensland can potentially drive an estimated 13GW of new renewable energy capacity by 2030, aside from the 6GW of renewable capacity presently committed for development.
In a new report, Reputex stated, “This would see renewable energy generation grow to more than 50 percent of electricity in the National Electricity Market (NEM) by 2030. Reputex therefore suggests that the market is on track to reach a 50 percent renewables target by 2030, irrespective of an explicit 50 percent renewable energy target.”
Bret Harper, the Head of Research at Reputex added, “Under the current policy, we see around 11GW pf new large-scale wind and solar entering the system by 2030, underpinned by the Queensland nd Victorian renewable energy targets, along with a further 8GW of new rooftop solar installations.”
The company also claims that even with falling revenues under the federal RET and delays for grid access, it still hopeful to see new renewable energy projects that continue to attract long-term financing.
Harper further elaborated, “The competitive pressure of new low-cost supply is modelled to significantly limit demand for coal-fired energy, even without a direct emission constraint. As a result, fossil fuel generation is modelled to more broadly on the decline, displaced by a large volume of solar, wind, and pumped hydro.”
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