As Energy Matters reports, the “2017 Electricity Statement of Opportunities” report published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) states that the grid “does not have the energy reserves it once had.” Therefore, grid stability must come outside the conventional frequency response security from the coal-fired turbines.
Purpose and Scope
According to the report, the purpose of the study is to give details to market participants to aid them in making informed decisions related to investment potential in the National Electricity Market (NEM). The latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) is based on the previous ESOO and patterning renewable generation builds to satisfy the proposed and present renewable energy targets in the NEM.
Furthermore, the report examines the possible generation outage events that may affect the supply reliability. This helps in determining the limitations which the short-term plans and solutions can do to solve supply shortage and find out various market opportunities in order to increase generation.
According to the report, there are three paths for renewable generation builds in the NEM in the 2017 ESOO:
* Committed and existing generation – This assumption integrates all existing generation in the NEM and new generation that meet the commitment criteria of AEMO. Advice on commitments and retirements is founded on present industry advice.
* Concentrated renewables – This scenario presumes possible additional development after 2020 are centered specifically in Victoria due to the Victorian Renewable Energy Target (VRET).
* Dispersed renewables – This premise assumes developments are determined by national targets that deliver a more balanced geographic spread of renewable generation across the NEM, which results in a greater penetration of renewables than is achieved if they are centered on a specific location or region.
The analysis published by the AEMO establishes that renewable generation can render essential support in order to maintain reliability even without firming capability. “However, if this renewable development was to lead to the earlier retirement of existing thermal generation, the risk of USE would increase without additional firming capability,” the report states.
For the full report, click this link.
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